The Europa League Round of 16 kicks off this Thursday with eight first legs spread across the continent, and the quality of the matchups is outstanding. Tournament favorites Aston Villa travel to Lille, league phase toppers Lyon face a tricky trip to Celta Vigo, and an all-Italian derby pits Bologna against Roma at the Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
The eight seeded teams (who finished in the top 8 of the league phase) have home advantage for the second legs next week, meaning this Thursday is all about the unseeded sides trying to build a lead, and the favorites looking to steal an away result.
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| Bologna | Draw | Roma |
|---|---|---|
| 3.20 | 3.10 | 2.49 |
The only all-domestic clash in the entire Europa League Round of 16. Bologna welcome Roma to the Renato Dall'Ara in a tie between two sides with contrasting European journeys, Roma qualified directly for the last 16 by finishing in the top 8 of the league phase, while Bologna had to navigate a playoff win over Brann (2-0 on aggregate) to reach this stage.
Roma sit fifth in Serie A with 51 points, firmly in the Champions League race, while Bologna trail in mid-table with 39 points after 28 rounds. On paper, Gian Piero Gasperini's Roma are the stronger squad, Donyell Malen has been a key addition and the former Atalanta boss knows exactly how to set up for European knockout football. However, Roma's away form has been poor: no wins in their last four road matches, including a recent defeat at Genoa.
Bologna's home form is equally inconsistent, just two wins in their last ten at the Dall'Ara, but Vincenzo Italiano's side had won five on the bounce before a surprise loss to Verona last weekend. Four of those five victories finished 1-0, highlighting Bologna's ability to grind out tight results and keep things defensively solid.
Expect a cagey, tactical Italian affair where the first goal will be crucial. Roma are slight favorites but this one could easily end level.
🔥 Odds Boost: Roma To Win & Donyell Malen To Have 2+ Shots On Target - 4.50 (boosted from 4.00)
| Lille | Draw | Aston Villa |
|---|---|---|
| 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.31 |
The tournament favorites travel to northern France. Aston Villa are the clear betting favorites to win the entire Europa League, roughly a 25% implied probability, and Unai Emery's side finished second in the league phase with a strong record and a +14 goal difference.
But Villa arrive in Lille with concerns. Their Premier League form has nosedived, winless in four matches, largely attributed to the absence of midfield trio Boubacar Kamara, Youri Tielemans, and John McGinn. Without that engine room, Villa have looked a different side domestically.
The silver lining? Emery is a Europa League specialist, three titles to his name, and as the season deepens, he may increasingly prioritize Thursday nights as Villa's most realistic route back into the Champions League. Morgan Rogers has been a bright spark and his creativity could be the difference in a tight away fixture.
Lille are no pushovers. They sit sixth in Ligue 1 and have already beaten Roma, Monaco, and Marseille this season. The two sides met in the 2023-24 Conference League, and those ties were closely contested affairs. Lille advanced through the playoffs with a 2-1 aggregate comeback over Crvena Zvezda, showing resilience. Their form since January, however, has been inconsistent.
Villa's quality should edge this, but don't be surprised if Lille make it uncomfortable.
🔥 Odds Boost: Aston Villa To Win & Morgan Rogers To Score Anytime - 6.00 (boosted from 5.50)
| Panathinaikos | Draw | Real Betis |
|---|---|---|
| 3.70 | 3.30 | 2.15 |
Real Betis earned their seeded spot by finishing in the top 8 of the league phase and will be confident of progressing against a Panathinaikos side that needed playoffs to reach this stage. The Greek side edged past Viktoria Plzeň after a 2-2 first-leg draw, winning the second leg at home.
Panathinaikos are dangerous at the Apostolos Nikolaidis Stadium, their passionate home support creates an intimidating atmosphere, but Betis have the superior squad quality and European experience. Manuel Pellegrini's side sit comfortably in La Liga's top half and are well-drilled in knockout football.
The key battle will be in midfield, where Betis's technical superiority should eventually tell. Panathinaikos will look to make this scrappy and physical, leveraging set pieces and their vociferous crowd. An away goal for Betis could be decisive ahead of the second leg in Seville.
| Stuttgart | Draw | Porto |
|---|---|---|
| 2.08 | 3.40 | 3.80 |
Two of Europe's most attack-minded sides collide at the MHP Arena. Stuttgart have been one of the most entertaining teams in this season's Europa League, six wins in ten league phase matches, averaging 1.9 goals per game, and Sebastian Hoeneß's side are in the Bundesliga Champions League spots with 47 points from 25 matches.
At home, Stuttgart are particularly dangerous. They've scored three or more goals in four of their last seven home games, and the atmosphere in Stuttgart has been electric this season. The issue? Their defense gets carried away and leaves space behind, a vulnerability that Porto are more than capable of exploiting.
Porto are two-time Europa League winners and arrive as seasoned European campaigners. They sit four points clear at the top of the Primeira Liga despite a recent 2-2 draw at Benfica where they surrendered a two-goal lead. Porto finished fifth in the league phase and earned direct entry to the last 16. Key injury absences include strikers Samu Omorodion and Luuk de Jong (both knee injuries), which significantly weakens their attacking options.
With Porto's attacking options depleted and Stuttgart's home form formidable, the Germans look well-placed to take a lead into the second leg. Expect goals, both teams to score looks very likely here.
| Nottingham Forest | Draw | Midtjylland |
|---|---|---|
| 1.56 | 4.40 | 5.85 |
Revenge is on the menu at the City Ground. These two sides met in the league phase earlier this season, and Midtjylland pulled off a shock 3-2 win on Nottingham Forest's home turf, a result that still stings for the English side. That defeat came under Ange Postecoglou, Forest's second of four managers this season. The current boss, Vítor Pereira, has steadied the ship considerably.
Forest were sensational in the playoffs, dismantling Fenerbahçe 3-0 away in Istanbul in one of the results of the round. The defensive partnership of Milenković and Murillo has been outstanding, while Morgan Gibbs-White and Igor Jesus provide the attacking threat. Forest are prioritizing Premier League survival, but their European form under Pereira suggests they can compete on both fronts.
Midtjylland should not be underestimated. Mike Tullberg's side finished third in the league phase with six victories from eight matches, they are a genuinely good team, not just in a Danish context. They are organized, quick on the counter, and have already proven they can win at the City Ground.
That said, Forest at home under Pereira are a different proposition to the side Midtjylland beat earlier in the campaign. The City Ground crowd will be electric, and Forest's intensity and Premier League physicality should be too much over the course of two legs.
🔥 Odds Boost: Nottingham Forest To Win & Morgan Gibbs-White To Score Anytime - 3.50 (boosted from 3.00)
| Ferencváros | Draw | Braga |
|---|---|---|
| 3.15 | 3.30 | 2.37 |
Ferencváros reached the last 16 by edging past Ludogorets in the playoffs, and now face a significant step up in quality against Braga. The Portuguese side earned a seeded spot through a strong league phase campaign and will be confident of their chances in Budapest.
Ferencváros will lean heavily on their sold-out Groupama Arena and the creativity of playmaker Mohammad Abu Fani. The Hungarian champions are dangerous at home and won't roll over, but Braga's superior technical quality and European experience make them slight favorites.
Braga have been consistent travellers in European competition and know how to manage two-legged ties. An away goal in Budapest would put them in a commanding position ahead of the second leg in Portugal. Expect a tight, competitive affair where discipline and composure will be rewarded.
| Genk | Draw | Freiburg |
|---|---|---|
| 2.70 | 3.35 | 2.70 |
The most evenly matched tie of the round on paper, and the odds reflect it perfectly, with both sides priced identically at 2.70. Genk advanced through the playoffs by beating Dinamo Zagreb on aggregate (3-3 agg, away goals), while Freiburg earned a direct route to the last 16 through a solid league phase.
Genk are a young, energetic Belgian side with pace and movement in attack. Bryan Heynen and Zakaria El Ouahdi were both impressive in the playoff round. However, Genk can occasionally lose focus when leading — something that nearly cost them against Dinamo.
Freiburg are the epitome of German efficiency under Christian Streich's successor. Well-organized, disciplined, and difficult to break down, the Bundesliga side rarely give away cheap goals. Their away record in Europe has been solid, and they'll be content to take a draw back to the Schwarzwald-Stadion.
This could be a chess match. Don't expect a goal-fest, under 2.5 goals looks tempting at this price.
| Celta Vigo | Draw | Lyon |
|---|---|---|
| 2.09 | 3.45 | 3.70 |
Lyon were the standout team of the league phase, topping the standings with seven wins from eight matches and the most goals scored in the entire competition. Paulo Fonseca's side went on a remarkable 13-match winning streak between December and February, establishing themselves as one of the tournament's most feared attacking units.
But that run has come to a screeching halt. Lyon are now four matches without a win, including a damaging late defeat to rivals Marseille. Their defensive frailties have been exposed, and confidence appears fragile. This is the worst possible time for Lyon to be travelling to an opponent who thrives on chaos.
Celta Vigo are no European heavyweights, but at Balaídos they are a different beast. Six wins in their last ten home matches, and recent La Liga performances against Mallorca and Girona have been prolific. The evergreen Iago Aspas remains a genuine match-winner, and Celta's high-pressing style is exactly the kind of approach that has troubled Lyon when their confidence dips.
Celta only lost narrowly to Real Madrid in their last home match (a stoppage-time Valverde winner), and their five-match unbeaten run prior to that shows their quality. This is a potential banana skin for the tournament's top-seeded team.
Don't be surprised by a high-scoring draw or even a Celta upset. Lyon's league phase dominance counts for nothing if they can't rediscover their form quickly.
Head to Duelbits PREDICT and bet on cross-match outcomes for Thursday's Europa League fixtures:
Total Goals - All 8 Thursday Matches: Over 19.5 goals 1.50 | Over 21.5 goals 2.00 | Over 23.5 goals 3.25
Total Goals - 8pm UTC Matches Only (Forest vs Midtjylland, Ferencváros vs Braga, Genk vs Freiburg, Celta Vigo vs Lyon): Over 9.5 goals 1.40 | Over 11.5 goals 2.10
With eight matches on the card and attacking sides like Stuttgart, Lyon, Forest, and Celta Vigo all in action, goals should flow. Over 21.5 total goals at 2.00 stands out, that's an average of just 2.7 goals per game, which feels very achievable given the attacking profiles of several of these matchups. Stuttgart vs Porto and Celta Vigo vs Lyon alone could combine for five or six goals between them.
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