Welcome to this week's PREDICT picks, where we break down the most exciting prediction markets available on Duelbits Predict. Today is the day. President Trump said the ceasefire with Iran ends "Wednesday evening Washington time," adding it's "highly unlikely" he would extend it if a deal is not reached. Iran has not confirmed it will be participating in a second round of talks in Islamabad, while the US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship over the weekend, with Tehran vowing retaliation.
Meanwhile, the Champions League semi-finals kick off this week, PSG vs Bayern Munich on April 28 at the Parc des Princes, and Atlético Madrid vs Arsenal on April 29 at the Wanda Metropolitano. Bitcoin sits around $75,000 after a volatile week, and PREDICT has launched new markets on Trump's next Attorney General, gas prices, and the permanent peace deal timeline.
The two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan on April 8th runs out today. The situation is dire. The war has killed more than 4,000 people across the Middle East, and oil markets, European equities, and Gulf sovereign bond markets are all pricing the next 48 hours with extreme caution.
Vice President JD Vance is expected to depart for Islamabad, but there are mixed signals on attendance from Iran. The US is blocking the transit of Iranian cargo ships in international waters as Iran is blocking most ships from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, a dual blockade that has strangled global energy supply.
A regional source described the situation as "a bazaar, both sides are bargaining, the door is not closed".
Market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by…?
The April 22 bracket, tomorrow, is the most explosive market on the platform right now. Either talks produce something in the next 48 hours or the war resumes.
Trump announces end of military operations by…? - April 30: 2.10 / May 31: 1.30
US invade Iran before 2027? - Yes: 2.30 / No: 1.60
Iranian regime fall before 2027? - Yes: 4.50 / No: 1.18
Iranian regime fall by June 30? - Yes: 8.00 / No: 1.07
Reza Pahlavi lead Iran this year? - Yes: 9.00 / No: 1.07
Iran compete at the 2026 World Cup? - Yes: 1.50 / No: 2.50
Market: US-Iran nuclear deal?
Vance said the negotiations failed because Iran would not provide an "affirmative commitment" not to seek a nuclear weapon. A nuclear deal remains the ultimate endgame, but the trust deficit is enormous.
Strait of Hormuz traffic normal by end of April? - Yes: 3.75 / No: 1.25
US escorts ship through Hormuz by…? - April 30: 3.50
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by…? - April 30: 12.00 / May 31: 9.00 / June 30: 6.00
WTI year-end high? - $150+: 2.75 / $180+: 5.00 / $200+: 6.00
Market: Will gas hit __ by end of April?
With the ceasefire expiring today, gas prices could spike further if hostilities resume and oil supply tightens again.
Last week's quarter-final second legs were sensational. Bayern Munich beat Real Madrid 4-3 in a seven-goal thriller, advancing 6-4 on aggregate Arsenal rode their luck in a nervous 0-0 draw against Sporting to clinch a 1-0 aggregate win. PSG cruised past Liverpool 4-0 on aggregate with Dembélé scoring twice at Anfield, and Atlético Madrid edged Barcelona 3-2 on aggregate.
The semi-final first legs land at the end of this week:
PSG, the defending champions, face a Bayern side that just produced one of the great Champions League nights. Arsenal travel to the Metropolitano in a clash of defensive pragmatists, Arteta vs Simeone.
For match odds and in-play betting on the semi-finals, check out Duelbits Sportsbook.
Arteta still Arsenal manager for 2026/27? - Yes: 1.05 / No: 9.00
Next Liverpool manager? - Xabi Alonso: 3.00 / Klopp: 5.50 / Luis Enrique: 6.50
Man Utd manager for 2026/27? - Michael Carrick: 1.66
Next Man City manager? - Enzo Maresca: 5.00 / Luis Enrique: 5.00 / Xabi Alonso: 6.00
Neymar at the World Cup? - Yes: 1.90 / No: 1.90
Messi vs Ronaldo: more WC goals? - Messi: 2.05 / Ronaldo: 2.50 / Tie: 5.50
Ronaldo score 1+ WC goals? - Yes: 1.10 / No: 7.00
Ronaldo shown crying at the WC? - Yes: 1.91 / No: 1.91
Bitcoin opened Monday at $73,820, down 2.5% from Sunday, before rallying to $75,242. The crypto market is caught between ceasefire optimism and the threat of renewed hostilities.
Bitcoin hit $60K or $80K first? - $80K: 1.53 / $60K: 2.38. The market has flipped bullish - $80K is now the favourite, a reversal from just weeks ago when $60K was heavily favoured.
How high will BTC get in 2026? - Above $100K: 2.50 / Above $120K: 4.50 / Above $150K: 8.50
Bitcoin cross $100K? - Before June: 8.00 / Before October: 4.00 / Before January 2027: 2.80
Bitcoin end of 2026? - $60K-65K: 10.00 / $70K-75K: 10.00 / $100K-105K: 13.00
Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? - Yes: 3.00 / No: 1.33. Gold has been the clear winner so far this year as the war-driven safe haven trade dominates.
Canada recession before 2027? - Yes: 2.10 / No: 1.66
Fed rate cuts in 2026? - Exactly 0: 2.50 / Exactly 1: 3.50 / 8 or more: 17.00. The market is pricing in stagflation, high oil prices choking growth while inflation prevents cuts.
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? - Yes: 1.22 / No: 4.00
That's your complete rundown for the week of April 21-28, 2026. The Iran ceasefire expires today, and the world is watching to see whether Islamabad delivers a breakthrough or the war resumes in full force. By the weekend, the Champions League semi-final picture will sharpen with PSG hosting Bayern and Atlético welcoming Arsenal. From the Strait of Hormuz to the Parc des Princes, Duelbits PREDICT has a market for everything. Head over and make your picks before the action unfolds.
