Welcome to this week's PREDICT picks, where we break down the most exciting prediction markets available on Duelbits Predict. This is one of the biggest weeks of the year, Trump's State of the Union address tonight kicks off a political prediction frenzy, the Champions League second legs deliver do-or-die knockout drama after a first-leg round packed with surprises, WWE Elimination Chamber comes to Chicago on Saturday, and the Oscars race enters its final sprint before voting closes on March 5th.
Let's dive into the top markets for the week of February 24 - March 1, 2026.
Tonight's State of the Union address is arguably the biggest political event of the year so far, and PREDICT has gone all-in with dozens of markets covering everything from specific words and places to tie color and applause length.
The speech lands at a politically explosive moment. CNN reported that the theme is "America at 250: Strong, Prosperous and Respected," but Trump faces serious headwinds, the Supreme Court struck down his tariff agenda last Friday in a 6-3 ruling, his approval ratings are declining, and the military buildup around Iran has raised questions about potential strikes. ABC News reported that Trump is considering a range of military options against Iran, including a possible limited strike to enhance the U.S. negotiating position.
NPR noted that Trump's 2025 address to Congress ran over 90 minutes, the longest in at least 60 years, and Trump previewed tonight by saying, "It's going to be a long speech, because we have so much to talk about." Over two dozen Democrats are boycotting the address, with Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger delivering the official Democratic response.
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Market: What places will Donald Trump mention during the State of the Union?
Near-certainties:
These four are essentially locked in. NBC News confirmed that Trump will discuss "peace through strength" foreign policy, which guarantees mentions of major geopolitical flashpoints. Iran at 1.10 is practically free money given the active military tensions, the U.S. has deployed a second aircraft carrier to the region, and another round of US-Iran talks are scheduled for Thursday.
Interesting value plays:
Greenland at 1.20 is strong value. Trump's territorial ambitions remain active, and there's a separate market on whether he'll specifically mention Greenland (Yes: 2.00 / No: 2.00 - a perfect coin flip).
Market: What will Donald Trump say during the State of the Union?
The speech is expected to cover immigration, tariffs, the economy, Iran, and affordability. Here's how that maps to the markets:
Near-locks:
"250" at 1.10 is a certainty given the speech theme references America's 250th anniversary. "Supreme Court" at 1.18 is excellent value, CNN highlighted that the Supreme Court's tariff ruling will be a tense backdrop, especially if Trump-appointed justices attend. "Nuclear" at 1.15 is basically guaranteed given the Iran nuclear talks.
Mid-range picks:
"Vaccine/Autism" at 2.00 remains intriguing with RFK Jr. running HHS. "Elon/Musk" at 2.50 is a coin toss, DOGE has been a lightning rod, and Trump could either praise or distance himself.
Long shots worth a punt:
Market: What nicknames will Donald Trump say during the State of the Union?
"Green New Scam" at 1.50 is strong value, Trump loves this line and energy policy will be a major theme. "Sleepy Joe" at 2.30 is tempting but formal addresses sometimes tone down the personal attacks.
Market: How long will Donald Trump speak at the State of the Union?
The 100+ minute bracket is the clear favorite at 1.90. Trump said himself it'll be long, and his 2025 address clocked over 90 minutes. With tariffs, Iran, immigration, and the economy all on the docket, plus his tendency to ad-lib, over 100 minutes feels right.
Market: Who will attend the State of the Union?
AOC at 10.00 is interesting given that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries urged Democrats to either "attend with silent defiance" or skip the event. Elon Musk at 4.00 is a fun punt, he's unpredictable enough to show up.
Longest applause? - 30-50 seconds: 3.25 / Under 30 seconds: 6.00. With Democrats boycotting, the chamber dynamics will be unusual.
Will anyone be kicked out? - Yes: 2.30 / No: 1.60. Axios reported Democratic protest plans, making this plausible.
Number of viewers? - Under 35M: 2.10 / 35-37M: 5.00. The 2025 address drew around 34 million viewers.
Trump's tie color? - Red: 1.20 / Blue: 11.00. Trump's signature red tie is overwhelming favorite.
Will the address be delayed? - Yes: 13.00 / No: 1.03. Unlikely but not impossible given the protest atmosphere.
The Champions League playoff second legs take place Tuesday and Wednesday, and the first-leg results have set up some incredible ties. Here's what happened in the first legs:
The first legs produced 35 goals across eight matches, with Galatasaray's stunning 5-2 demolition of Juventus the standout result. According to UEFA's official results, Newcastle's 6-1 annihilation of Qarabağ, with Anthony Gordon becoming only the second English footballer in Champions League history to score in double digits, was a record-setting night.
Market: Will there be 15 or more goals scored in Tuesday's Champions League?
Tuesday's first legs produced 16 goals, but the second legs could play out differently. Atlético vs Club Brugge (3-3 draw) is wide open and could be a goal-fest, while Newcastle's 6-1 lead means Qarabağ have nothing to lose. Inter trailing 1-3 to Bodø/Glimt at home sets up a desperate comeback attempt at San Siro.
How many goals? - 16+: 2.75 / 18+: 5.00 / 20+: 9.00 / 22+: 21.00
Will there be 10+ goals in Tuesday's 8pm UTC matches? - Yes: 1.50 / No: 2.50
Red card in Tuesday's matches? - Yes: 1.80 / No: 2.00. With Atlético Madrid in a 3-3 tie needing to advance at home, and Inter fighting for survival against Bodø/Glimt, the desperation factor is real.
Goal in the first 5 minutes? - Yes: 2.30 / No: 1.60. Early goals change the complexion of two-legged ties entirely.
Goal after 89:59? - Yes: 1.70 / No: 2.10. The first legs saw dramatic late goals, Club Brugge equalized in the 89th minute against Atlético. Late drama is a Champions League tradition.
15+ cards in Tuesday's matches? - Yes: 2.00 / No: 1.75. Second-leg intensity plus elimination pressure equals cards. Atlético Madrid alone average over four cards per European match.
Goalkeeper scores? - Yes: 21.00 / No: 1.01. A moonshot, but remember Benfica goalkeeper Trubin's dramatic goal in the league phase.
Wednesday's card is even more dramatic. Juventus need to overturn a 5-2 deficit against Galatasaray, PSG defend a slim 3-2 lead at home against Monaco in the all-French derby, and Real Madrid take a 1-0 advantage back to the Bernabéu against Mourinho's Benfica, with Mourinho suspended after receiving a red card in the first leg.
Will there be 14+ goals in Wednesday's Champions League? - Yes: 2.00 / No: 1.80
How many goals? - 16+: 3.40 / 18+: 5.50 / 20+: 13.00
10+ goals in Wednesday's 8pm UTC matches? - Yes: 1.55 / No: 2.40
Goal after 89:59? - Yes: 1.75 / No: 2.00
For traditional match odds and in-play betting on all Champions League second legs, check out Duelbits Sportsbook.
WWE Elimination Chamber takes place on Saturday, February 28th at the United Center in Chicago. According to CBS Sports, CM Punk defends his World Heavyweight Championship against Finn Bálor in front of his hometown crowd, while two brutal Chamber matches determine who earns WrestleMania 42 title shots.
Netflix's preview called it "one of WWE's most brutal matches," with six superstars locked inside a steel structure and eliminated one by one until a winner emerges. Last year's event produced one of wrestling's most shocking moments when John Cena turned on Cody Rhodes after winning the men's Chamber.
Market: WWE Elimination Chamber Main Event - Winner
Rhodes at 2.00 is the betting favorite. Sportskeeda reported that Rhodes lost the Undisputed WWE Championship earlier this year and has been seeking to reclaim it, making a Chamber victory the logical path to a WrestleMania 42 main event against Drew McIntyre. Fun fact from Athlon Sports: Je'Von Evans will be the youngest competitor in Elimination Chamber history, the match itself is two years older than he is.
Market: WWE Elimination Chamber 2026 Specials
The Hall of Famer appearance at 1.70 is strong value, Chicago is wrestling royalty territory, and WWE loves surprise appearances at hometown events. Logan Paul with PRIME brass knuckles at 1.80 is practically a given if he's on the card. A Chicago sports star at 2.00 is the kind of cross-promotion WWE excels at.
Thursday, February 26th brings the Premier League Darts Quarter Finals, headlined by teenage sensation Luke Littler against Jonny Clayton, alongside Stephen Bunting vs Luke Humphries, Michael van Gerwen vs Gerwyn Price, and Gian van Veen vs Josh Rock.
Market: Will Luke Littler win the match, have the most 180s AND the highest checkout vs Jonny Clayton?
A treble of winning, most maximums, and highest checkout is a tall order even for Littler, but the 19-year-old phenomenon has been in scintillating form. At 2.30, this is appealing for Littler believers.
How many 180s across all quarter finals? - 24+: 1.50 / 26+: 2.00 / 28+: 3.00 / 30+: 4.50 / 35+: 17.00
Will there be 25+ 180s? - Yes: 1.75 / No: 2.00
Will every player have at least 1 180? - Yes: 1.33 / No: 3.25
5+ 180s in every match? - Yes: 3.00 / No: 1.36
170 checkout (the holy grail)? - Yes: 3.75 / No: 1.25. The perfect checkout is rare but always dramatic when it happens.
Beyond the SOTU, there's a broader weekly market covering everything Trump says in any public setting.
Market: What will Donald Trump say this week?
"Barack Hussein Obama" at 1.10 is a near-certainty, Trump uses the full name regularly as a rhetorical device. "Autopen" at 1.25 references Biden's use of the auto-signing device, a frequent Trump talking point.
Best AI model end of February? - Anthropic: 1.10 / Google: 8.00 / OpenAI: 41.00. Anthropic's dominance on the LM Arena leaderboard looks unassailable heading into month-end.
Which company will have a top-ranked AI model in 2026? - OpenAI: 1.80 / xAI: 2.68 / DeepSeek: 6.50. A much more competitive long-term market.
Claude 5 released by…? - Feb 28: 34.00 / March 31: 7.00 / April 30: 2.25
Gemini 3.5 released by…? - March 31: 13.00 / April 30: 6.00 / May 31: 1.80
SpaceX IPO before 2027? - Yes: 1.25 / No: 4.00
Elon Musk Net Worth on Feb 28? - $660-670B: 2.30 / $670-680B: 2.95
Bitcoin continues trading around $68-70K after its dramatic decline from October's all-time high above $126,000. CNBC reported that U.S. Bitcoin ETFs have become net sellers in 2026 after purchasing 46,000 BTC this time last year.
Will Bitcoin fall below $60K in 2026? - Yes: 1.18 / No: 4.50. Already touched $60,062 in early February.
When will Bitcoin cross $100K again? - Before March: 21.00 / Before April: 8.00 / Before July: 4.00
Bitcoin hit $200K before 2027? - Yes: 8.00 / No: 1.06
Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? - Yes: 2.20 / No: 1.60. Gold has been surging while BTC struggles.
US/Israel strikes Iran by Feb 28? - Yes: 3.00. ABC News reported Trump is actively considering military options against Iran.
Venezuela leader end of 2026? - Delcy Rodríguez: 1.33 / Maduro: 5.50. Roll Call reported the U.S. bombing of Caracas and capture of Maduro.
Russia-Ukraine ceasefire before 2027? - Yes: 2.20 / No: 1.62
Ali Khamenei out as Supreme Leader? - Before April 1: 3.80 / Before July 1: 2.00. Iran tensions make this increasingly relevant.
