Welcome to this week's PREDICT picks, where we break down the most exciting prediction markets available on Duelbits Predict. The world was turned upside down over the weekend. Joint US-Israeli airstrikes on Iran killed Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei on February 28th, triggering retaliatory missile strikes on Israel and Gulf states, shaking global financial markets, and reshaping the geopolitical landscape overnight.
The Iranian government has declared 40 days of national mourning following Khamenei's death. Congress is debating a war powers resolution after Trump launched strikes without congressional approval, Bitcoin whipsawed from $65,000 to nearly $69,000, and prediction markets have been supercharged across the board.
Against this extraordinary backdrop, Oscar final voting closes on Wednesday, the Premier League delivers a packed midweek schedule across Tuesday and Wednesday, Premier League Darts Night 5 hits Cardiff on Thursday, and the Epstein files saga continues to unfold. Let's dive in.
The assassination of Khamenei has fundamentally reshaped multiple prediction markets on PREDICT. Trump announced on Truth Social that Khamenei was killed Saturday after the US and Israel launched a predawn assault on the country. Iran's defence minister and the commander-in-chief of the IRGC are among those killed, along with the secretary of the Defence Council and multiple senior security officials.
Market: Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Market: Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
The regime's survival is now a genuine open question. Exiled crown prince Reza Pahlavi unilaterally declared the "end of the Islamic Republic" shortly following Khamenei's death and called on Iranians to prepare for "decisive presence in the streets." Ali Larijani, Iran's top security official, said a temporary leadership council would be established. At 1.80, the "Yes" on regime collapse before 2027 reflects genuine uncertainty — a coin flip with seismic implications.
Market: Next Supreme Leader of Iran?
This is one of the most fascinating markets on PREDICT right now. With most of Iran's senior leadership killed in the strikes, the succession question is genuinely wide open. The "Position abolished" option at 6.00 is particularly intriguing given calls for regime change from both the diaspora and Western leaders.
Market: Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran this year?
Trump told The Atlantic that Iranian leadership "want to talk, and I have agreed to talk", though he declined to specify when. A March 6 ceasefire at 11.00 is a long shot but offers huge upside if talks accelerate rapidly.
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by…? - March 7: 13.00 / March 15: 7.00 / March 31: 2.20 / May 15: 1.35
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by…? - March 31: 1.80 / June 30: 1.55 / December 31: 1.20
Will Trump declare war on Iran by March 31? - Yes: 3.50 / No: 1.27. The speech was delivered during a partial government shutdown, as funding for the Department of Homeland Security lapsed on Feb. 14, now the administration faces the added complexity of wartime funding.
Will the US invade Iran before 2027? - Yes: 4.50 / No: 1.20
Tuesday and Wednesday deliver nine Premier League matches across two evenings, a feast for PREDICT's granular EPL markets. Tuesday's card features Bournemouth vs Brentford, Everton vs Burnley, Leeds vs Sunderland, and the headline match Wolves vs Liverpool. Wednesday brings five more including Brighton vs Arsenal, Newcastle vs Manchester United, Aston Villa vs Chelsea, Manchester City vs Nottingham Forest, and Fulham vs West Ham.
Will there be 12 or more goals in Tuesday's EPL matches? - Yes: 2.00 / No: 1.80. Four matches, so 12 goals requires an average of three per game — ambitious but achievable with Liverpool's attacking firepower on display.
How many goals will be scored in Tuesday's EPL matches? - 13+: 2.60 / 14+: 3.50 / 15+: 5.00 / 16+: 8.00 / 17+: 11.00 / 18+: 19.00
Will any of Tuesday's EPL matches have 5 or more goals? - Yes: 1.91 / No: 1.91. A perfect coin flip. Wolves vs Liverpool has the highest goal expectation.
How many of Tuesday's EPL matches will have 3 or more goals? - 0: 17.00 / 1: 4.20 / 2: 2.40 / 3: 3.20 / 4: 10.00
Same correct score in Tuesday's matches? - 0: 1.80 / 2: 2.20 / 3: 19.00 / 4: 101.00
40 or more corners in Tuesday's matches? - Yes: 1.80 / No: 2.00
8 or more corners in each match? - Yes: 2.60 / No: 1.50
Each team 3+ corners? - Yes: 3.50 / No: 1.30
16 or more cards in Tuesday's matches? - Yes: 1.70 / No: 2.10
Each team shown a card? - Yes: 3.00 / No: 1.40
3 or more cards in each match? - Yes: 2.70 / No: 1.45
Wednesday's five-match slate brings even bigger names to the pitch. Newcastle vs Manchester United is the headline match, a fierce rivalry with European qualification implications for both sides.
Will there be 15 or more goals in Wednesday's EPL matches? - Yes: 1.80 / No: 2.00. Five matches make 15 goals (three per game average) achievable.
How many goals scored in Wednesday's EPL matches? - 16+: 2.20 / 17+: 2.70 / 18+: 3.50 / 19+: 5.00 / 20+: 7.00 / 21+: 10.00 / 22+: 15.00
Will any of Wednesday's EPL matches have 6 or more goals? - Yes: 1.50 / No: 2.50. Brighton vs Arsenal and Newcastle vs Man United both have high-scoring potential.
How many of Wednesday's EPL matches will have 4 or more goals? - 0: 8.00 / 1: 3.00 / 2: 2.70 / 3: 4.50 / 4: 17.00 / 5: 51.00
Same correct score in Wednesday's matches? - 0: 2.70 / 2: 1.70 / 3: 9.00
45 or more corners? - Yes: 1.80 / No: 2.00
8 or more corners in each match? - Yes: 3.20 / No: 1.30
21 or more cards? - Yes: 1.80 / No: 2.00
Each team shown a card? - Yes: 3.80 / No: 1.25
3 or more cards in each match? - Yes: 3.20 / No: 1.30
For traditional match odds and in-play betting on all Premier League fixtures, check out the full coverage on Duelbits Sportsbook.
With the Iran conflict dominating the news cycle, Trump's weekly speech market takes on a whole new dimension. Expect wartime rhetoric, military terminology, and potentially inflammatory language as the administration navigates the biggest foreign policy crisis of his second term.
Market: What will Donald Trump say this week? (March 2-8)
"Golden Dome" at 1.66 is interesting in a wartime context, it could refer to military installations, the Golden Dome of the Rock in Jerusalem, or simply be rhetoric. "Epstein" at 2.40 may be deprioritized this week given the Iran focus, making it riskier than usual.
Market: What will Donald Trump say in March?
With a whole month to work with, most of the sub-1.50 selections are near-locks. "Moscow" at 1.66 is the standout value play, with Russia-Ukraine dynamics shifting amid the Iran crisis, a mention feels likely.
Market: What nicknames will Trump say before April?
Market: What will be said on the first JRE episode this week? (March 1-8)
"Iran" at 1.15 is practically a lock, there's no way the biggest geopolitical event of 2026 doesn't dominate Rogan's podcast this week. "Gold / Silver" at 1.80 is smart value too, gold surged 2% on the Iran news and is a perennial Rogan topic.
Thursday, March 5th brings Night 5 of the BetMGM Premier League Darts to the Utilita Arena in Cardiff. The quarter-final matchups are set: Michael van Gerwen vs Luke Humphries, Gian van Veen vs Jonny Clayton, Gerwyn Price vs Stephen Bunting, and Luke Littler vs Josh Rock.
After four weeks, the standings have been wide open. On night four in Belfast, Josh Rock hit a nine-dart finish — the 22nd nine-darter in Premier League Darts history. Stephen Bunting won Night 4, while Jonny Clayton topped Night 3 after his 6-1 demolition of Littler.
Market: Premier League Darts Night 5 - 180s Specials
Market: Night 5 - Player with most 180s
Littler at 3.30 is the favorite despite his inconsistent form, he was demolished 6-1 by Clayton last week. His match against Josh Rock should be an entertaining 180-fest.
Market: Night 5 - Match with most 180s
Market: Night 5 - Checkout Specials
After Rock's nine-darter in Belfast, the 8.00 for another perfect leg is tempting — two consecutive nights with nine-darters would be historic.
This is the most critical week of the entire Oscar race. Final Oscar voting will take place from Feb. 26 to Mar. 5, meaning every ballot must be cast by Wednesday. The 98th Academy Awards take place March 15th, hosted by Conan O'Brien for a second consecutive year.
This particular cycle has seen some wild swings, at least in certain categories, which suggests that last-minute viewings could impact the final results. The SAG Actor Awards delivered a significant upset, with Michael B. Jordan beating Timothée Chalamet for Best Actor, throwing the Oscar race wide open.
Best Picture: One Battle After Another: 1.33 / Sinners: 4.20 / Hamnet: 17.00 / Bugonia: 36.00
Best Director: Paul Thomas Anderson: 1.11 / Ryan Coogler: 15.00
Best Actor: Timothée Chalamet (Marty Supreme): 1.85 / Michael B. Jordan (Sinners): 2.75 / Leonardo DiCaprio: 9.00
The Best Actor race is the one to watch. Chalamet is still favored at 1.85, but Jordan's SAG upset at 2.75 makes this genuinely competitive. If you believe the actors' branch, the Academy's largest voting bloc, follows SAG, Jordan offers excellent value.
Best Actress: Jessie Buckley (Hamnet): 1.14 / Rose Byrne: 9.00
Bitcoin has been on a wild ride. Bitcoin climbed to $68,600 in early U.S. trading on Monday as stocks slumped far less than feared following the Iran strikes. As of today, BTC is trading around $62,000-$69,000, with significant intraday volatility as traders digest the geopolitical situation.
Prediction markets show bearish consensus at historic highs, with over 60% of Polymarket participants expecting BTC to fall below $50,000 at some point in 2026. Standard Chartered has cut its year-end forecast to $50,000, while some bulls see a potential rally back above $100K if risk appetite returns.
Will Bitcoin fall below $60K in 2026? - Yes: 1.18 / No: 4.50. BTC has already touched $60,062 in early February, and geopolitical chaos makes a revisit very plausible.
When will Bitcoin cross $100K again? - Before March: 21.00 / Before April: 8.00 / Before May: 7.00 / Before July: 4.00
Bitcoin hit $200K before 2027? - Yes: 8.00 / No: 1.06
Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? - Yes: 2.20 / No: 1.60. Gold surged on the Iran news while BTC's correlation with equities stays elevated at 0.55 — a tough ask for Bitcoin bulls.
MicroStrategy hold 800K+ BTC by year-end? - Yes: 1.20 / No: 4.33
Market: Daily NBA Specials (March 3 - 20:10 ET to 23:10 ET)
Five games on the card starting with Spurs @ 76ers:
The 20+ points triple at 3.00 is a solid play, all three are consistent scorers in good form.
Even the weather gets the PREDICT treatment this week.
Highest temperature in London on March 3? - 14°C: 3.00 / 15°C: 1.55 / 16°C: 11.00. The 15°C range is the heavy favorite.
Highest temperature in NYC on March 3? - 38-39°F: 2.10 / 40-41°F: 3.60 / 36-37°F: 5.00
The Champions League Round of 16 draw was completed on February 27th and the matchups are blockbusters. Real Madrid taking on Manchester City, PSG vs Chelsea, Arsenal vs Leverkusen, and Newcastle vs Barcelona headline the ties. First legs kick off March 10-11, next week, making this the ideal time to position on long-term UCL markets.
How many English teams will reach the UCL quarter-finals? - Exactly 4: 3.30 / Exactly 3: 3.50 / 4 or more: 2.00 / 5 or more: 4.50. With Liverpool, Arsenal, Chelsea, Tottenham, and Newcastle all in the last 16, English clubs have a legitimate shot at dominating the quarters.
Will an English team win the UCL? - Yes: 1.80 / No: 2.10
Arsenal is the team to beat after easing through the league stage with an unblemished record of eight wins. They face Leverkusen on what looks like the more favorable side of the bracket.
Market: Who will win the MrBeast 50 Streamers in a Cube challenge?
Releasing April 1st, this market features 50 streamers with wide-open odds:
With so many competitors at long odds, this is a fun market for small-stake value bets. Endurance challenges tend to favor less recognized names over big streamers.
Market: Top Spotify artist in March?
Bruno Mars at 1.08 is one of the safest bets on the platform this week.
