Welcome to this week's PREDICT picks, where we break down the most exciting prediction markets available on Duelbits Predict. The Iran ceasefire is crumbling. Vance said Sunday that negotiations failed because Iran would not provide an "affirmative commitment" not to seek a nuclear weapon, and Trump declared a US naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, announcing the Navy will prevent ships from entering or exiting Iranian ports. The two-week ceasefire expires on April 21st, this Monday, making this the most consequential week of the entire conflict.
On the pitch, Wednesday delivers Champions League quarter-final second legs with Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid and Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon. Thursday brings Europa League quarter-final second legs. Trump sits down for part two of his Fox News interview with Maria Bartiromo. And PREDICT has launched new markets on gas prices, the next Attorney General, and Trump's Mar-a-Lago visits.
The fragile two-week ceasefire, brokered by Pakistan on April 8th, is hanging by a thread. Since its declaration, the ceasefire has been violated by both sides. Three supertankers made it through the Strait of Hormuz on Saturday, the biggest day of oil exits since the war began, but Iran's IRGC said shipping stopped following what it called an Israeli ceasefire violation in Lebanon.
CNBC reported Tuesday morning that a second round of US-Iran negotiations is under discussion, with Trump telling the New York Post that talks "could be happening over the next two days" in Islamabad.
Market: US x Iran permanent peace deal by…?
The April 22 bracket at 3.50, the day after the ceasefire expires, offers the highest stakes. Either talks produce a breakthrough this week or the war resumes.
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by…? - April 15: 15.00 / April 30: 2.10 / May 31: 1.30
US invade Iran before 2027? - Yes: 2.30 / No: 1.60
Iranian regime fall before 2027? - Yes: 4.50 / No: 1.18
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by…? - April 30: 1.18 / June 30: 1.10
Will Iran compete at the 2026 World Cup? - Yes: 1.50 / No: 2.50. Despite the war, Iran qualified automatically. The question is whether the conflict prevents participation.
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? - Yes: 3.75 / No: 1.25. CNN's energy adviser said the strait is "weeks away from any restoration of even 50% or 70% of traffic".
US escorts commercial ship through Hormuz by…? - April 15: 17.00 / April 30: 3.50
WTI oil hit in April? - $100+: 1.80 / $110+: 3.50 / $120+: 6.00 / $130+: 9.00 / $150+: 19.00
Market: Will gas hit __ by end of April?
California's gasoline prices exceeded $5 per gallon in early March. The national average has been climbing steadily since the war began.
WTI oil year-end high? - $150+: 2.75 / $180+: 5.00 / $200+: 6.00
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by…? - April 30: 12.00 / June 30: 6.00
Wednesday brings two blockbuster second legs: Bayern Munich vs Real Madrid and Arsenal vs Sporting Lisbon.
PSG won 4-0 on aggregate and Atlético Madrid won 3-2 on aggregate in Tuesday's second legs, eliminating Liverpool and Barcelona respectively. Dembélé scored twice as PSG crushed Liverpool at Anfield, while Barcelona went down to 10 men again after Eric Garcia's red card against Atlético.
Now Wednesday's ties: Bayern Munich host Real Madrid (first leg: Bayern 2-1 Real Madrid), and Arsenal host Sporting Lisbon (first leg: Arsenal 1-0 Sporting).
Market: Wednesday's Champions League Specials
Two matches, 6.5 goals = roughly 3.25 per game. Bayern vs Real Madrid could be an all-time classic — a repeat of last year's semi-final thriller.
Will Declan Rice start vs Sporting? - Yes: 2.25 / No: 1.60. Rice's fitness has been a talking point all season.
For match odds and in-play betting, check out Duelbits Sportsbook.
Market: Thursday's Europa League Specials
Highest scoring Europa League QF second-leg match? - Aston Villa vs Bologna: 2.75 / Real Betis vs Braga: 3.60 / Celta Vigo vs Freiburg: 3.60 / Nottingham Forest vs Porto: 5.00
Highest scoring team? - Aston Villa: 4.20 / Real Betis: 5.00 / Celta Vigo: 5.50 / Nottingham Forest: 6.50
Market: What will Trump say this week?
"Two week / two-week" at 1.70 is excellent value, the ceasefire is two weeks and Trump will almost certainly reference it. "TACO" at 4.00 is a fascinating new selection if critics' nicknames are gaining traction.
Market: Who will be Trump's next Attorney General?
Who will leave Trump's Cabinet next? - Tulsi Gabbard: 2.30 / Lori Chavez-DeRemer: 3.50 / Pete Hegseth: 5.00
Market: How many times will Trump visit Mar-a-Lago in April?
That's your complete rundown for the week of April 15-21, 2026. The Iran ceasefire expires Monday, and with it, the fragile calm that has kept oil from spiraling even further. Wednesday's Champions League quarter-finals could produce two all-time classics. From the Allianz Arena to the Strait of Hormuz, Duelbits PREDICT has a market for everything. Head over and make your picks before the action unfolds.
