Jannik Sinner arrives in Madrid chasing tennis history. The 24-year-old is on a 17-match winning streak and holds a 24-2 record this season. He has already claimed Masters 1000 titles this year in Indian Wells, Miami, and Monte-Carlo. A fourth consecutive Masters 1000 triumph, and fifth if you include his Paris title from late 2025, would be unprecedented in the modern era.
The 2026 Mutua Madrid Open draw has been significantly reshaped by a wave of high-profile withdrawals. Carlos Alcaraz, Novak Djokovic, Taylor Fritz, Jack Draper, Sebastian Korda and Frances Tiafoe have all pulled out, opening up the bracket.
The 2026 Mutua Madrid Open runs from 22 April to 3 May at the Caja Mágica in Madrid, Spain. Here's your complete preview with full outright odds and best bets from Duelbits Sportsbook.
Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change.
| Player | Odds |
|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner | 1.50 |
| Alexander Zverev | 9.50 |
| Arthur Fils | 13.00 |
| Ben Shelton | 26.00 |
| Felix Auger-Aliassime | 29.00 |
| Lorenzo Musetti | 34.00 |
| Joao Fonseca | 34.00 |
| Daniil Medvedev | 41.00 |
| Francisco Cerundolo | 41.00 |
| Ugo Humbert | 51.00 |
| Alexander Bublik | 51.00 |
| Andrey Rublev | 51.00 |
| Jakub Mensik | 51.00 |
| Casper Ruud | 67.00 |
| Flavio Cobolli | 67.00 |
| Rafael Jodar | 67.00 |
| Karen Khachanov | 67.00 |
🔥 Ace's Treble Play Boost: Cerundolo, Carabelli & Hanfmann All To Win — 3.50 4.50
The world number one has not lost a Masters 1000 match since retiring in Shanghai and has dropped just one set in that time, against Tomas Machac in Monte-Carlo.
With Carlos Alcaraz and Novak Djokovic out, there is no excuse for Sinner not to win this event. The Italian has never won in Madrid, his best result at the Caja Mágica came in 2024 when he reached the quarter-finals, but the absence of both of his most dangerous rivals transforms the picture entirely.
The statistical case for Sinner is overwhelming. The question the market is asking at 1.50 is not whether he's the best player in the field, he clearly is, but whether the altitude of Madrid, the stacked top half of the draw, or an undisclosed shoulder concern can introduce enough variance to make backing him at this price anything other than near-certain.
Sinner will open against a qualifier and could face last year's quarter-finalist Gabriel Diallo in the third round. Tommy Paul is a potential fourth-round opponent and Alex de Minaur is Sinner's seeded quarter-final match. However, NextGen stars Joao Fonseca and Rafael Jodar are both in De Minaur's section of the draw. Jodar, 19, lifted the trophy in Marrakech and reached the semi-finals in Barcelona.
This quarter feels pretty straightforward for Sinner if his shoulder niggle isn't too much of a problem. The real intrigue is the bottom half of the quarter, De Minaur has landed in a minefield. Jodar could test him immediately, and Fonseca looms as one of the most dangerous floaters in the entire draw.
Quarter 1 verdict: Sinner should advance comfortably but the potential semi-final opponents are intriguing.
Last week's ATP 500 champions, Ben Shelton in Munich and Arthur Fils in Barcelona, both find themselves in the top half of the Madrid bracket. Shelton and Fils are on a collision course for the fourth round, with the winner likely in line to face Lorenzo Musetti in the quarter-finals and Sinner in the semis.
Shelton is the top name in Quarter 2 as Madrid's No. 4 seed, fresh off a championship title in Munich. Despite the talent level, it was a surprise to see Shelton win a clay-court tournament in Europe. Arthur Fils is without a doubt the biggest threat to Shelton making a deep run in Madrid, winning in Barcelona this past week and looking very impressive.
The question for both: can they back up a deep run the previous week without losing a step? Fils won six matches in Barcelona. Shelton won five in Munich. Madrid is a demanding 96-player draw.
Quarter 2 verdict: Fils at 13.00 is the standout value. If he carries Barcelona form into Madrid, he's a genuine semi-final threat.
Third seed Felix Auger-Aliassime meets Sebastian Baez or a qualifier in his first match. FAA is a player whose clay game has improved significantly and Madrid's altitude, which speeds up the clay surface, theoretically suits his aggressive baseline style.
Lorenzo Musetti at 34.00 is the interesting outlier here. The Italian has genuine clay-court quality and draws well enough to potentially reach a quarter-final meeting with Sinner. If their quarter-final happens, it would be a genuinely fascinating match-up between two Italians at very different points in the betting market.
Quarter 3 verdict: Auger-Aliassime is underrated at 29.00 on this surface at this venue.
Second seed Alexander Zverev is seeded to meet Daniil Medvedev in the quarter-finals. Zverev, a two-time Madrid champion, opens against Nuno Borges or Mariano Navone. The German could play Ugo Humbert in the third round and Jakub Mensik in the fourth round. Defending champion Casper Ruud is also in this section.
Zverev at 9.50 represents the clearest alternative to Sinner in the market. The two-time champion knows the Caja Mágica well and his record here is one of the strongest on tour. Zverev will look to make it past the semi-final for the first time this year after continuously losing to the top two in the world at this stage.
Ruud at 67.00 is an interesting each-way play, the defending champion, clay-court specialist, and a player with proven big-match temperament. His odds feel generous given his 2025 title here.
Quarter 4 verdict: Zverev at 9.50 is the only realistic challenger to Sinner. Ruud at 67.00 has outright value as the defending champion.
Sinner's quest for a fifth consecutive ATP Masters 1000 title, having triumphed at Paris, Indian Wells, Miami, and Monte-Carlo, across those four tournaments the Italian has dropped just one set.
No player in the Open Era has won five consecutive Masters 1000 titles. The history at stake adds an extra dimension to Sinner's participation, and potentially extra pressure.
For a second straight year, Carlos Alcaraz will miss the Mutua Madrid Open with an injury. Jannik Sinner was also sidelined 12 months ago, but the Italian is back in the field this season and is a massive title favourite.
Alcaraz's withdrawal through a wrist issue removes the player who won this title in 2022 and 2023. His home crowd advantage, his clay-court dominance, and his ability to match Sinner in extended rallies made him the one opponent even Sinner bettors feared. Without him, the value discussion shifts significantly.
Rafael Jodar at 67.00 is one of the most interesting longshots in the field. The 19-year-old Spaniard won the Marrakech title and reached the Barcelona semi-finals the previous week. Playing in Madrid as a home crowd favourite adds another dimension.
Joao Fonseca at 34.00, the Brazilian teenager who has been one of the most talked-about prospects on tour, draws well enough to make noise. Both are genuine wild cards worth small outright positions.
| Bet | Market | Odds |
|---|---|---|
| Jannik Sinner to win Madrid | Outright | 1.50 |
| Arthur Fils to win Madrid | Outright | 13.00 |
| Alexander Zverev to win Madrid | Outright | 9.50 |
| Casper Ruud to win Madrid | Outright | 67.00 |
🔥 Ace's Treble Play Boost: Cerundolo, Carabelli & Hanfmann All To Win - 4.50 (boosted from 3.50)
Pick: Sinner to win the tournament. His form, the draw, the absences of Alcaraz and Djokovic, and his motivation to make history all point in one direction. At 1.50 there is limited value for a singles outright position, but as part of a parlay or combination bet, Sinner is the anchor selection of the tournament.
Value pick: Arthur Fils at 13.00 - fresh off the Barcelona title, comfortable on clay, and on the correct side of the draw to potentially reach the semi-finals without facing Sinner until that stage.
Bet on all Madrid Open matches and outright markets at Duelbits Sportsbook.
Odds correct at time of writing and subject to change.
When is the ATP Madrid Open 2026? The 2026 Mutua Madrid Open main draw runs from Wednesday 22 April to Sunday 3 May at the Caja Mágica in Madrid, Spain.
Who is the favourite to win the Madrid Open 2026? Jannik Sinner is the overwhelming favourite at 1.50 on Duelbits. The world number one arrives on a 17-match winning streak after Masters 1000 titles in Indian Wells, Miami, and Monte-Carlo.
Is Carlos Alcaraz playing at the Madrid Open 2026? No. Alcaraz has withdrawn through a wrist injury — a second consecutive year missing his home tournament. His absence significantly shapes the betting market.
Who won the Madrid Open in 2025? Casper Ruud won the 2025 title, defeating Jack Draper 7-5, 3-6, 6-4 in the final. Ruud returns to defend his title in 2026 and is priced at 67.00 on Duelbits.
What surface is the Madrid Open played on? Outdoor clay at the Caja Mágica, Madrid. The venue's altitude of approximately 655 metres makes the ball travel faster than at sea-level clay courts, giving a marginal advantage to flatter, more aggressive players.
Who are the biggest upsets to watch at Madrid 2026? Arthur Fils at 13.00 is the standout value after winning Barcelona. Rafael Jodar at 67.00 is the home-court wildcard after his Marrakech title. Casper Ruud at 67.00 has defending champion status.
Where can I bet on the ATP Madrid Open 2026? Bet on all Madrid Open matches and outright markets on Duelbits Sportsbook. Navigate to Tennis, find the ATP section, and select the Mutua Madrid Open 2026.
